Security Incidents in Democratic Republic of Congo: Trends and Patterns

In the Dominican Republic of Congo... 107 humanitarian workers have died, 129 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 212 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

This analysis examines security incidents affecting humanitarian operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1996 to 2025, revealing significant patterns and trends. Key findings include:

• Political transition volatility: Security incidents peaked dramatically following the 2019 political transition, with incident levels reaching unprecedented heights in 2020.
• Kidnapping prevalence: Unlike other conflict contexts, kidnapping emerges as the predominant attack type, reflecting armed groups’ tactical choices in the DRC.
• Ambush vulnerability: Security incidents most frequently occur during ambushes, highlighting the risks associated with movement through the challenging terrain of eastern DRC.
• Nationals at highest risk: Congolese humanitarian workers face disproportionately higher security risks, particularly from kidnapping, compared to international personnel.
• Geographic hotspots: Road networks and transportation routes represent the most dangerous operational environments, requiring specialized security approaches.

These findings have critical implications for humanitarian operations, protection strategies, and security risk management in the complex and evolving DRC context.

2 Background: The Conflict

2.1 Historical Context

The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo represents one of Africa’s most complex and enduring crises. Rooted in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, the violence has evolved through two major regional wars—the First Congo War (1996-1997) and the Second Congo War (1998-2003)—which collectively resulted in millions of deaths. Despite formal peace agreements, eastern DRC has remained unstable, with over 120 different armed groups competing for territory, resources, and influence in the mineral-rich regions of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri provinces (Foreign Relations 2024).

2.2 Recent Escalation

In early 2025, M23 rebels, backed by Rwandan troops, captured Goma in eastern DRC, killing between 900-2,000 civilians and triggering mass displacement. This represented the culmination of escalating violence that began with M23’s resurgence in 2022 and their steady territorial gains throughout 2023. The situation had already deteriorated significantly following DRC’s contested December 2023 elections, which sparked nationwide unrest. During 2024, the humanitarian situation worsened dramatically, with:

• 358,000 newly displaced people
• 30% rise in violations against children
• Failure of the U.S.-brokered peace agreement from late 2023
• Intensification of conflict despite international diplomatic efforts
• Severe humanitarian access constraints in M23-controlled territories

Map of Incidents

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3 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

3.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents

3.1.1 Analysis of Incident Trends

The line chart reveals a complex pattern of security incidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo:

• Post-war stabilization (2003-2006): Following the end of the Second Congo War, incidents remained relatively low but persistent, suggesting continued insecurity despite formal peace agreements.

• First wave of M23 (2008-2013): The emergence of the M23 rebellion in 2012 corresponded with fluctuating incident levels, though the defeat of M23 by UN forces in 2013 didn’t immediately reduce security incidents.

• Dramatic surge (2018-2020): The most striking feature is the sharp spike in incidents following Felix Tshisekedi taking power in 2019, with incidents peaking at 27 in 2020 - the highest recorded level in the entire period.

• Steady decline with volatility (2020-2023): The M23 resurgence in 2022 and contested elections in 2023 corresponded with declining yet volatile incident patterns, suggesting changing rather than improving security dynamics.

• Recent drop (2025): The sharp decline in incidents following the M23 capture of Goma is notable, potentially indicating reduced humanitarian presence in conflict areas rather than improved security conditions.

This pattern highlights the complex relationship between political transitions, armed group activities, and humanitarian security incidents in DRC, where periods of apparent stability can mask underlying tensions that later erupt into violence.

4 Nature of Security Incidents

4.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

4.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

Kidnapping and shooting are the predominant attack methods in the DRC conflict. Bodily assault represents the third most common tactic. The high prevalence of kidnappings aligns with documented tactics by armed groups in eastern DRC, particularly by militia groups seeking ransom or using abductions to intimidate local populations and establish territorial control.

4.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

4.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

The prevalence of ambushes reflects the tactical approach of armed groups operating in the DRC. The high number of ambushes aligns with the geographical characteristics of the conflict zone, where dense forests and limited road infrastructure create ideal conditions for surprise attacks by M23 rebels and other armed groups. The substantial number of unknown contexts points to the challenges in documenting incidents in remote areas with limited monitoring presence.

4.3 Location of Attack

Figure 4: Most common attack locations

4.3.1 Analysis of Attack Locations

Most incidents occurred on roads, followed by a high proportion of unknown locations, highlighting both the risks of transit and limitations in reporting.

5 Human Impact of Security Incidents

5.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 5: Total casualties by category

5.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

The significantly higher rate of kidnappings among nationals compared to other casualty types reflects a tactical choice by armed groups in eastern DRC, who frequently use abductions to control territory, extract resources, and recruit fighters. This pattern aligns with reports from UN agencies documenting extensive use of kidnapping by the various groups. The disproportionate impact on nationals versus internationals highlights how Congolese civilians bear the overwhelming burden of the conflict. source

6 Major Incidents

6.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1

6.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

The table reveals a pattern of security incidents in the DRC spanning two decades (1997-2017). The deadliest incident occurred during the 1997 First Congo War period with 10 fatalities.

For more detailed information on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

7 💡 Recommendations

These findings suggest specific approaches for operating in the DRC context:

7.1 For Security Planning

• Implement comprehensive journey management protocols with real-time risk assessments
• Establish robust communication networks with regular check-in procedures during movements
• Develop specific anti-kidnapping protocols and train staff on prevention and response
• Consider armed escorts on high-risk routes where appropriate and legally permissible

7.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

• Balance operational presence with a thorough understanding of conflict dynamics in each area
• Consider remote programming models in areas with highest kidnapping risks
• Prioritize national staff security with equal investment in protection measures
• Develop context-specific security training focusing on ambush prevention and response

7.3 For Future Research

• Analyze the effectiveness of different security approaches in reducing kidnapping risks
• Examine the long-term trends in security following major political transitions
• Research community-based protection mechanisms that have proven effective in the DRC context

By providing a data-driven understanding of security patterns in the DR Congo, this analysis aims to contribute to safer and more effective operations in this challenging environment.

References

Foreign Relations, Council on. 2024. “Violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo.” https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo.